Straddle for earnings Part 4

I am still getting used to my new blog engine... I was hoping I can set different categories of posts like I did in my old blog...


Anyway, continuing my trading/investing journey... On last earnings, I experimented straddles with real and paper money. My paper trades did extremely well (on AMZN, CROX, PCLN, BZH), especially longer term straddles.


Real trades on CROX did well as well and the stock has gotten much pricier and less short selling. I imagine a short squeeze this season won't be as explosive as the last. My shorter frame JPM, NVDA ended up losing $. (Although greed and time were the main factors, it was positives at a few points)





This earnings, I am going to check out YHOO, ETFC, CROX, AMZN, and PCLN.

YHOO has a really low Beta, but earnings is coming up and tech sector is quite hot right now because subprime issues, I think it *might* get violatle again. And the premium on both calls and puts are not extremely high.. if the stock swings 10% either way, given a months time, I think there's a chance of making $. I will bet some money on this one. Note the recent increasing width of Bollinger Band as well...

Click on each image for larger view:

ETFC sank a lot recently, due to subprime concern. The premium is not overly high on this either. Although short and beta ratio are low, this one might be worth a risky bet at for a longer timeframe out. Look at the recent huge width of the Bollinger bands, ths is becoming a violatile stock.




CROX was a violatile one. Probably because their shoes are ugly but kids love them. There were a lot more short sellers before. Now only 24% of the float. With beta = 2.48. I think this might be a good candidate for straddle again.





PCLN is my favourite hotel booking site!! Last earnings I only did paper trade, whereas my friend did a real trade and earned some $. Congrats!! Sometimes this stock explodes after earnings! I have been booking with PCLN since the stock was at $17 back in 2004 Asia trip. Now it's wayyyy up! The beta is small, but I think this stock can be violatile, especially if there's a short squeeze. There is 20% short float last month. Look at the huge width of Bollinger bands around earning times in the past two earnings.





AMZN is a violatile one at every earnings season. I lost lot's of $ betting against this stock when it exploded up the 2nd time this year. Who knows what will happen this season. Last season was 15% short on the float. This time around it's 12.4%. The beta is large at 3.53. I think this is probably a good candidate too.






My disclaimer: I am not a pro trader, I don't have fancy tools to do any analysis. These are all my personal opinions. If you lose money replying on the info here, I take no responsibility. If you make a few bucks with my info here, you can treat me a coffee (or just click on some ads witll do)! Good luck!